LEXINGTON, Va. - Texas Gov. George W. Bush will handily earn the Republican Party's presidential nomination, according to a student-run mock convention that successfully predicted nominees 16 out of 21 times since 1908.

In a tradition that is taken quite seriously by political hopefuls, student delegates at Washington and Lee University's 2000 Mock Convention yesterday cast 1,939 votes - or 94 percent - for Mr. Bush. He needed 1,033 to win.

"He's a man of good character, who we feel can do a good job running this country," said Mark Schweppe, chairman of the two-day event.

Sen. John McCain of Arizona finished a distant second with 86 votes. Publisher Steve Forbes received 23 votes; former diplomat Alan Keyes garnered 14 and former Reagan aide Gary Bauer got four.

Since 1952, the school's mock convention correctly predicted 11 times out of 12 the presidential nominee of the party not in the White House. The only miss came in 1972, when delegates favored Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, Massachusetts Democrat.

"You've got a great track record," said 1996 convention favorite Bob Dole, this year's keynote speaker. "You don't miss very often."

Rep. J.C. Watts Jr., Oklahoma Republican, won the nod as Mr. Bush's running mate, although the delegates usually get that part wrong.

The mock convention - which dominates talk every four years around this country town in Southwestern Virginia - mirrors the real thing in almost every way.

More than 1,600 delegates and 1,450 spectators jammed the college gym, decorated with tall post-like signs representing each state. One by one, students from each section announced their votes while their images were beamed onto two large screens at the front of the convention hall.

Although participants put some serious research into the process, the mood among the rows of folding chairs and state flags was largely festive.

One student wore his flag as a cape and covered his head with a rubber Ronald Reagan mask. Delegates representing Wisconsin wore bright yellow cheese hats. It was not uncommon to see suits topped off with baseball caps.

"It's a part of history," said Blair Sale, 19, of Panama City, Fla. "It's fun to take part. It's kind of real world."

Jesse Smith, 18, of Newport News, Va., said he took part because his father did before him.

"It only happens once every four years. I had heard a lot of good things about it."

Conventioneers, many of whom actually hail from the states they represent, consult with pollsters, professors, politicians and other pundits in researching each state's choice. Much work is done during breaks, when students return home, said political professor and adviser Bill Connelly.

"Their sole motivation is tradition," he said, noting that participants are not paid nor do they receive college credit. "These students get it right. Getting it right matters to these kids."

Jan. 19, five days prior to the Iowa caucuses, Washington and Lee students predicted the outcome - down to the percentage point - better than professional polls, university officials said.

The students' work is so careful and complete that the convention has earned a lofty reputation and attracted big-name speakers.

Mr. Dole topped a list of powerful Republicans who took turns revving up the crowd and taking a few jabs at Vice President Al Gore.

"This administration has advanced the cause of cynicism in this land," former Education Secretary Bill Bennett said. "It has caused disappointment and disillusionment. It has shamed public life."

Delegates selected Mr. Watts for the second spot on the ticket after hearing a speech that some say brought tears to their eyes. In his address Friday night, Mr. Watts didn't hesitate to criticize the Clinton administration.

"You can buy foreign policy, but you can't buy good decency and a good moral sense of what's right and wrong," he said.

Mr. Watts, along with former Gov. Frank Keating of Oklahoma and former Sen. Bill Brock of Tennessee, announced support for Mr. Bush. Mr. Dole has not yet backed a candidate.

Rep. Robert W. Goodlatte, Virginia Republican, kicked things off yesterday with a twinge of bias.

"I don't want to influence your decision, but I know a great governor who would make a great president of the United States," he said. "I'm very partial to the letter W. It's my middle initial too.