Editor’s Note: Every presidential election cycle, students at Washington & Lee University in Lexington stage their Mock Convention to nominate the candidate of the out-of-power party. Since 1908, the students have correctly picked the opposition candidate 18 out of 23 elections. In advance of the 2008 election, Wesley Little, chairman of the W&L convention, will be writing a campaign analysis for The News & Advance.

The past two months have been busy ones in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.

In April, the results of the first quarter of campaign fundraising results were reported, an announcement that gave renewed strength to Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani while harming the John McCain campaign. Also shaking up this race significantly is the indication that conservative favorites Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich will enter the race.

The probable inclusion of these two candidates adds extra competition for the supporters, endorsements and campaign cash needed to win the nomination. In this segment of my student-produced column, I’ll give you an idea of the current status and standings of the Republican presidential race.

• Mayor Rudy Giuliani: “America’s Mayor” has tightened his grip on the leadership of this race with high national poll numbers around 27 percent, a successful $15 million fundraising haul and two successful debates. He must keep the Republican electorate’s focus on his national security gravitas and away from his unpopular views on social issues in order to continue his momentum.

• Sen. Fred Thompson: Without even announcing that he will run for president, this former Tennessee senator and current “Law & Order” actor has enthralled the conservative base of the party and given them the hope of having a viable social conservative in the race. Look for Thompson to start quietly locking up important supporters and staff and make an announcement in the first part of June.

• Sen. John McCain: Once the race’s clear leader, McCain’s campaign suffered in April following his disappointing fundraising results of $12 million and falling polling numbers. However, McCain’s strong debate presence, experienced campaign team and strength in states like Iowa and New Hampshire make him impossible to count out in this race.

• Gov. Mitt Romney: This former governor of Massachusetts used his strong network of supporters to raise $22 million in the first quarter of this year, more than any of his competitors. Nonetheless, he will have to deal with questions about his Mormonism and ideological flip-flopping in order to raise his poll numbers above his current position in the 10 percent range.

• Gov. Mike Huckabee: This former Arkansas governor has performed very well in the debates but still has miniscule polling numbers and little money from fundraising with which to raise them.

• Speaker Newt Gingrich: No one excites the conservative base like this former House speaker, but it is unclear if Gingrich’s plan to enter the race near September could garner enough support to convince Republican voters to nominate one of the most divisive politicians around. His strategy may also be hampered by the entrance of fellow conservative favorite Fred Thompson.

• Rep. Tom Tancredo: This Colorado congressman’s campaign could rise with the prominence of his signature issue, immigration, in the minds of Republican voters. His $1 million first-quarter fundraising was surprisingly strong, but his poll numbers are still within the margin of error of zero percentage points.

• Sen. Sam Brownback: The Kansas senator led the “second tier” in fundraising with $1.25 million, but his sub-par performances in the debates and tiny polling results raise serious doubts about his potential of breaking into the group of top candidates.

• Rep. Duncan Hunter: A San Diego congressman with experience and expertise in military matters, Hunter lacks significant campaign cash and has yet to find a constituency in this crowded and likewise accomplished field.

• Gov. Tommy Thompson: The former governor of Wisconsin and the leader of his state’s acclaimed reform of welfare, Thompson has one of the best governing records in the race but seemed genuinely lost in the past two debates.

• Rep. Ron Paul: This former Libertarian candidate for president and current Texas congressman has an energetic group of supporters, but they will probably not be enough to garner this eccentric candidate enough support to be a serious force in this race. A current motion to limit the size of the debates would likely end Paul’s chances.

• Gov. Jim Gilmore: No one is quite sure why this former governor of Virginia is running for president, as evidenced by his paltry $175,000 first quarter fundraising.

  
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